Less than three weeks after hot dog-centric day – the 4th of July – there is debate about what Superstore Costco will do for the price of their dogs.
More specifically, the market is questioning Costco’s retail cost of a hot dog and 20 oz. soda, which currently only sets members back $1.50. And the soft drink itself is of the refillable variety.
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Costco’s $1.50 dog is a quarter pound of all beef served plain with condiments and toppings of ketchup, mustard, sauce and onion at all food court locations.
Up, down, stay the same? That’s the question as grills prepare for the biggest party of the summer. From Monday, the one on Polymarket see Costco staying put. A price increase for the iconic Costco combo currently sees a “yes” trades at only a 10% discount Polymarkt. 90% see that the price remains the same. Current trade figures aim far beyond the day when Joey Chestnut consumes as many hot dogs as entire neighborhoods on July 4.
Polymarket will decide “Yes” if the price (before tax) is greater than $1.50 at a US-based Costco store on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Still, with six months to go, most traders see the price remaining unchanged.
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So far, that’s probably a safe bet. Costco hasn’t changed the price of the hot dog and soda combo since the 1980s. While the price has remained unchanged for decades, a few subtle changes have made their way to Costco’s famous combo: This spring, Costco began offering an option to replace their 20oz. soda with a 16.9 oz. Kirkland bottled water instead. And in April 2025, Costco switched from Pepsi products to Coca-Cola. Pepsi was in the Costco food court since 2013 before the change.
Chew on that.
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